You probably noticed it this weekend. Highways packed, airports full, restaurants with hour-long waits. And at the same time, everyone's complaining about prices.

The University of Michigan just put a number on it: consumer confidence hit 44.8 last week, the lowest reading in the survey's 74-year history. Meanwhile, AAA projected 45 million Americans would travel for Memorial Day, a new record. People feel awful about the economy and are spending like nothing's wrong. That gap is the whole story right now.

Let's get into it.

Layoffs feel bigger than they are. A Washington Post analysis found that despite Meta, Intuit, and LinkedIn making headlines, total layoffs and discharges remain near historical lows at 1.9 million per month. Tech layoffs are real, but they're concentrated in a sector that accounts for a small share of total employment.

Software engineering is still growing, but the entry point is shifting. The BLS projects software engineering jobs to grow 17% through 2033, adding 327,900 new roles. But a Stanford study found that entry-level developer hiring (ages 22-25) fell nearly 20% between 2022 and 2025 as AI coding tools changed the skill floor. The jobs are there, the way in is different.

Jobless claims still holding steady. Weekly initial claims came in at 209,000 for the week ending May 16, down 3,000 from the prior week and below the 210K forecast. Continuing claims edged up slightly to 1.782 million. The broader labor market is not cracking.

43% of workers are actively trying to change careers this year. Not just thinking about it, acting on it, according to FlexJobs and CNBC. The environment is more favorable than it looks: skills-based hiring is at 81% in employer surveys, and GPA as a screening tool has dropped from 73% in 2019 to 42% in 2026. If you've been waiting for the right time to make a move, the gatekeeping is lower than it's been in years.

Most workers in AI-exposed jobs are actually well-positioned to adapt. A Brookings/NBER study found that of 37.1 million US workers in high-AI-exposure jobs, 26.5 million have above-median adaptive capacity, meaning they have the savings, skills, and local options to pivot. The 6.1 million who don't are concentrated in clerical and administrative roles, and 86% are women. That's where targeted support needs to go.

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The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 44.8 in its final May reading, the lowest level since the survey began in 1952. The previous all-time low was roughly 50.5, set during the inflation spike of June 2022. This isn't just lower. It's in a category by itself.

The top concern is the cost of living. 57% of consumers spontaneously cited high prices as eroding their personal finances. Year-ahead inflation expectations are at 4.8%, and long-run expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5%. Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions keep pushing gas prices higher. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted the steepest declines.

And yet, this same weekend, AAA projected 45 million Americans would travel for Memorial Day, a new record. Gas prices are higher than last year. Round-trip domestic flights average $800, though that's 6% cheaper than 2025. People are making cost-conscious adjustments (shorter trips, closer destinations), but they're still going.

This isn't irrational. It's a split economy. TD Economics data shows the top 20% of earners now account for a record 57% of all consumer spending. The headline numbers look resilient because the top of the income distribution is doing the heavy lifting. The bottom 80% is pulling back on discretionary spending, choosing store brands, skipping dining out, driving shorter distances. The aggregate number masks a widening gap underneath.

Here's the practical question: consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of GDP. If sentiment this low eventually translates into an actual pullback, retail, travel, dining, and consumer electronics are the first sectors exposed. The jobs tied to those sectors follow.

Why it matters: The "resilient consumer" headline you keep seeing is accurate in aggregate but misleading in detail. The economy is holding together because the top quintile is spending enough to offset everyone else pulling back. Watch for cracks in lower-income discretionary categories over the summer. That's where the sentiment finally catches up to the spending.

You probably remember the wave of announcements: Google, Apple, IBM, Accenture, Delta, Bank of America, dozens more, all publicly dropping degree requirements. Harvard Business School and the Burning Glass Institute tracked what happened next, and the results split into three clear groups.

37% of companies genuinely changed their hiring practices, increasing the share of non-degree workers by nearly 20%. These are the ones worth paying attention to. Another 18% made short-term gains and then reverted. And 45% dropped the requirement "in name only," with no measurable change in who they actually hired. At some large firms, fewer than 1 in 700 hires went to workers without bachelor's degrees.

The federal government is joining the real group, dropping degree requirements for IT managers as of April 2026. That opens a meaningful number of federal roles to experienced professionals without a four-year degree.

Why it matters: The 37% that followed through are real opportunities, and they're identifiable. Look for companies where the job posting focuses on years of experience, certifications, and project portfolios rather than education credentials. Portfolio-based applications, demonstrated project work, and industry certifications are now legitimate entry points at more than a third of major employers. The shift is real, it's just not universal.

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This is especially useful heading into summer, when companies that report Q2 earnings in July tend to announce restructuring alongside results. If your company's sentiment is headed the same direction as the consumer confidence index, better to know now than in August.

Last issue's prediction: SpaceX IPO opening valuation (below $1.5T / $1.5-2T / above $2T). IPO date is June 12. We'll check back then.